It seems now that one of the key recommendations from the Iraq Study Group will be implemented, the United States is going to have a regional conference with neighboring countries and the five permanent U.N. Security Council members — the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China —are going to send deputies to the conference.
Apparently the era of the “go it alone” diplomacy of the Bush Presidency might be coming to an end, while softening his stance on North Korea, accepting the UN’s laughable response to the Iranians nuclear program, and the fact his only supporters are the more… enthusiastic wing of the Republican party, the president might be deciding that pragmatism is the better part of valor.
The Iranians sound skeptical, then again this could be a chance for them to get the United States to ease off their “strictly for energy nuclear program. I can see a diplomatic deal being worked out that would give both sides what they want.
The Iranians would use their considerable influence to help tone down the sectarian militias, Iraq would begin to partially stabilize, and President Bush would have another “end of operations” moment declaring victory to make a hasty retreat.
The Iranians would gain some breathing room, there is no international will for any type of military strike against Iran without the United States leading the charge. The Europeans much like always, are content to rely on diplomacy and the Iranian promises to do no evil.
Europe much like a squalling child has the amazing ability to bury their head in the sand, and one day it’s seriously going to cost them. Also with the leaders of the United States and Iran face hostile publics, one tired of waging a war with absolutely no end in sight and the other worried that their leaders inflammatory rhetoric could lead to Iran regressing back to the stone age, courtesy of the United States Air Force and Navy.
One rogue glitch in any deal would be Israel.
America is to Israel as Iran is to Syria and Hezbollah, we provide them money, arms, and are generally ideological allies. Still the Israeli’s don’t have the same qualms about attacking Iran if they believe the Iranians are getting nuclear weapons.
Fifty years of fighting insane religious zealots would give anyone an itchy trigger finger.
So while Bush might find some salvation in this conference, it might be spoiled by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert who could use an attack on Iran to rally public support for him. His government has faced severe criticism for it’s handling of the last conflict with Hezbollah.
As we all know, nothing like a good war to rally the public.
Personally there are to many factors to accurately predict what will happnen, it will probobaly degenerate into a PR love fest with promises of brotherhood, aid, and sugar cookies. In the end each of the coutnries will head home, and begin plotting to make sure things go their way.
The nature of politics being what it is.
